Ugh. I was only 2-of-4 in my Western Quarterfinals predictions, but I knew I was swinging for the fences when I picked San Jose over St. Louis. And the Los Angeles Kings upending the President’s Trophy-winning Vancouver Canucks? I never saw that happening in a tight seven-game series, let alone a five-game affair. The NHL’s 29th-best offense (out of 30!) beat the Canucks because of a team defense spearheaded by Jonathan “I want the Vezina” Quick. He is the reason LA made the playoffs at all, and that notion stands after stifling/stunning Vancouver, despite only scoring four goals over the final three games of the series.
St. Louis Blues (2) vs Los Angeles Kings (8): Defensive chess match of 1967 expansion teams. That sums up this series in a nutshell. The Blues gave up the fewest goals in the NHL all season, followed by the surprising Kings. Both teams boast outstanding goaltending that has yielded 8 goals apiece during their respective five-game, first round series. I’d give the edge to Quick’s Kings, but not by much.
If that’s enough to convince you that there’s going to be a lot of 2-1 hockey, take into account that of all playoff teams, only the Florida Panthers and these same Kings have more anemic offenses than St. Louis.
Two defensively sound, offensively clubs means this series is going to be won and lost on special teams. Utilizing the extra space and attacker provided by power plays will make all the difference in the world here. The Blues went 6-for-18 (33.3%) in the first round, including a three-goal explosion in Game 3′s 4-3 win over San Jose. Their 2nd-best-in-the-playoffs power play matches up favorably to LA’s, 13th of all postseason teams, which went 3-for-26 (11.5%) against the Canucks. The penalty kill units match up more favorably, the Blues going 15-for-17 (88.2%), the Kings 18-for-21 (85.7%).
Screen screen screen. That’s the only way pucks are going to get through the brick walls in net. I hate betting against Quick again, but after the Kings erupted for 8 goals in the first two games of their series against Vancouver, their season-long scoring virus returned to plague them. I don’t think they have time to find a cure. Blues in six.
Phoenix Coyotes (3) vs Nashville Predators (4): The Predators are my Stanley Cup pick. In dispatching Detroit, and with early summers for other Cup favorites Pittsburgh, Chicago and Vancouver, the Preds road to the championship looks a little brighter.
Or does it? Phoenix is statistically better in every playoff category than Nashville:
POWER PLAY: PHX 21.1% NSH 9.1%
PENALTY KILL: PHX 94.7% NSH 82.6%
GOALS SCORED: PHX 2.83 NSH 2.60
But here’s the biggest one:
GOALS AGAINST: PHX 2.00 NSH 1.8
The Predators have a much better team defense/goalie than the Chicago Blackhawks, Phoenix’s first round victim, did. The Yotes won’t be able to put as many pucks past the even keeled Pekka Rinne as they did with Chicago’s Corey Crawford.
Hockey “purists” – aka assholes and idiots – will scoff at this series based purely on address, but Phoenix and Nashville are going to produce a fun series with a lot of banging, skating and some tense moments and probably a multiple overtime game or two. If Shane Doan changed his name to some derivative of Michael – like first round heroes Mikkel Boedker and Miek Smith – I’d maybe give the nod to Phoenix. Otherwise, I’m sticking with the Preds.